NZ House Prices 2026: Data From QV, ANZ & RNZ

If you’ve been watching New Zealand’s housing market, you know the past few years have been a rollercoaster. But 2026 is shaping up to be a year of contrasts — with major banks scaling back their forecasts even as some data points show modest gains. Here’s what the numbers actually say.

House price change (April 2026 quarter): +0.2% (QV House Price Index) ·
ANZ forecast for 2026: -2% overall (MPA Magazine) ·
RNZ forecast driver: Fuel price shock → ~2% fall (RNZ) ·
Long-term average growth (since 1992): 6% per year (ANZ via MPA Magazine)

Below are five key data points that frame the 2026 outlook — a mix of long-term averages and near-term forecasts.

Will house prices go up in 2026 in NZ?

What do the major banks forecast?

• ANZ now expects a 2% decline over 2026, down from an earlier +5% call, citing rate hikes and weaker conditions (MPA Magazine).
• Westpac reduced its 2026 forecast to a 4% rise (from a higher number) after seeing a 0.7% year-on-year drop in the REINZ index (Westpac IQ).
• ASB and BNZ expect flat prices, pointing to elevated listings and inventory overhang (MacroBusiness).

What is the ANZ prediction?

ANZ economists explicitly state they expect prices to fall slightly over 2026, reversing an earlier forecast of 5% growth. The bank’s long-term data shows an average annual increase of 6% since 1992, but the current cycle suggests a short-term dip (MPA Magazine).

The implication: the consensus among the largest lenders is that 2026 will be a soft year — but the range (from -2% to +4%) is wide enough to keep options open.

Are house prices coming down in NZ?

What does the QV House Price Index show?

The QV House Price Index for the April 2026 quarter recorded a national increase of 0.2% — not a decline, but a very subdued gain (QV). This follows a period of correction after the COVID-era boom.

What are the current trends?

• Westpac’s analysis of REINZ data shows seasonally adjusted sales fell 6% in January 2026, and prices dipped 0.2% month-on-month after a small rise in December (Westpac IQ).
• The REINZ national median price sat at NZD 770,000 in June 2025, flat year-on-year (Global Property Guide).
• Auckland’s median fell 3.4% over the same period, while the rest of the country saw a 1.7% rise (Global Property Guide).

The pattern: prices are not crashing, but the flat-to-slightly-negative trend is unmistakable — especially in Auckland.

Will 2026 be a good time to sell?

Is it wise to buy a house in New Zealand?

Potential price softening, if it materialises as forecast by ANZ and RNZ, could make 2026 a better time to buy than sell. But the long-term fundamentals — an average 6% annual rise over 30 years — still favour ownership for those who can hold (ANZ via MPA Magazine).

What do experts say about selling in 2026?

A recent Opendoor-style guide suggests sellers set realistic expectations based on local conditions and recent sales data, rather than hoping for a market rebound (MPA Magazine).

Why this matters: with inventory elevated and demand uncertain, 2026 favours the buyer — but sellers willing to price accurately can still transact.

Why are people moving away from New Zealand?

What are the main reasons for emigration?

• Cost of living and housing affordability are cited as top push factors, alongside better job opportunities abroad (Global Property Guide).
• Net migration outflows reduce housing demand — a key variable that forecasters watch closely. If departures accelerate, prices could fall further (MacroBusiness).

How does this affect house prices?

Fewer people means fewer buyers. The Reserve Bank of New Zealand’s House Price Index was already 1.82% lower year-on-year in Q1 2025 (Global Property Guide). If emigration continues at current levels, the downward pressure on prices persists.

The catch: a weaker NZ dollar or a global recession could reverse migration flows, adding a layer of uncertainty to any 2026 prediction.

What is the market prediction for 2026?

What does the data from QV, ANZ, and RNZ indicate?

• QV: +0.2% in April 2026 quarter — a whisper of growth, not a roar (QV).
• ANZ: -2% over the full year (MPA Magazine).
• RNZ: ~2% drop due to fuel price shock (RNZ).
• Trading Economics Housing Index: fluctuated around 2310–2317 in early 2026, projected at ~2318 by end of quarter and ~2390 by 2027 (Trading Economics).

What are the long-term predictions (5 years, 2030)?

A Reuters poll cited by Global Property Guide expects 6.0% growth in 2026 and 5.1% in 2027, suggesting a rebound after the current soft patch (Global Property Guide). Trading Economics models point to a Housing Index of 2438 by 2028 (Trading Economics).

The divergence: short-term forecasts are cautious; long-term forecasts remain optimistic — the market may just be taking a breather.

For New Zealanders deciding whether to buy or sell in 2026, the choice is clear: act on the data, not wishful thinking — or risk being caught in a sideways market.

For a contrasting perspective, ASBs revised 2026 house price forecast suggests a flat market, diverging from the more optimistic projections from QV and ANZ.

Frequently asked questions

Related reading:

• Kiwibank Lowers Home Loan Rates – how mortgage rates are shaping affordability
• Houses for Sale in Auckland | Under $500k to $800k Listings – current market listings in NZ’s largest city